Which pitcher will the Indians move?
The Cleveland Indians signed Carlos Carrasco to an extension Thursday which could last until 2023 if options are exercised. Now an evaluation of the other two starting pitchers rumored to be traded must begin immediately.
Case for Indians trading Corey Kluber
Corey Kluber has been fantastic in his time in an Indians uniform. A two-time Cy Young Award winner who has been integral to the success of the club. Even with all he has meant to the franchise and his success there are concerns.
Kluber’s health has been a bit spotty in recent years. While Kluber did not spend any time on the disabled list last season, an injection during the All-Star break was deemed necessary to allow Kluber to pitch the rest of the season. Kluber did spend time on the disabled list in 2017 due to a back injury. Health issues appear to be creeping up on Kluber and more may be in the future.
Performance wise Kluber is still dominant, but there is a concern with the frequency of home runs given up. Kluber gave up 25 home runs in 2018. This is an average of one per nine innings, a career-high. During the 2017 campaign 21 home runs were given up by Kluber. In fact Kluber may have given up even more if a trip to the disabled list did not occur.
Cleveland may determine that it is in their best interest to get the best assets they can for an older player who may be heading towards the latter part of his career. Kluber will be 33 next season and a decline will eventually come. The Indians will have determine whether hanging on to an aging pitcher who will become expensive quickly is in their best interest.
Case for Indians trading Trevor Bauer
Trevor Bauer is the younger of the two starting pitchers in trade rumors. Bauer is five years younger than Kluber and can be argued still has not reached his peak in terms of performance. With his uptick in performance last season it is easy to understand why keeping Bauer instead of Kluber makes sense. Bauer is on the upswing while Kluber is not.
The question about his performance is if this a trend in the right direction or simply a career season. Bauer’s 2.21 ERA in 2018 is 1.73 points better than his career average. 2018 was Bauer’s first season below a 4.18 ERA. The question is ultimately if the Indians believe this is a repeatable performance and that question is more than fair considering previous campaigns.
The more glaring issue is the contract situation. Bauer has two years of arbitration remaining (including 2019) and then becomes an unrestricted free agent. The real obstacle is a strange bet made by Bauer. Bauer made a bet with a friend that he would never sign a multi-year deal or sign a contract extension. If he does, his friend gets to shoot him in the groin with a paintball gun from only 10 feet away. Since that sounds incredibly painful, it is safe to say a multi-year deal is not in his future.
Cleveland has determine whether they feel confident enough in being able to keep Bauer long term considering he will only sign a one-year deal each year. That is a hard sell considering Bauer can essentially walk in free agency after each season.
Looking at the Indians options in the trade market
It all comes down to weighing the two options. Keep an aging Corey Kluber who will be expensive versus risking one-year deals with a much younger Trevor Bauer. Kluber’s name has popped up more in trade rumors as time has gone on than Bauer. Kluber has the longer record of success while Bauer is coming off a career year. That could also lead to the increased interest in Kluber over Bauer. However the better return on the trade market may come from Bauer. Cleveland could ask for a king’s ransom for a player in his prime on the upswing of his career.
The Indians appear motivated to trade one of the two sooner rather than later. Especially considering that the Mariners already traded James Paxton to the Yankees, Patrick Corbin signing with Nationals and Nathan Eovaldi returning to the Red Sox. The market for starting pitchers is likely the highest it will be this offseason. Trading one now to a team that feels like they missed out makes the most sense and could yield the largest, most useful return. Cleveland needs to gauge which the other teams value more, experience or youth? The answer to this question should ultimately determine who is traded by the Indians.
