The box score does not tell the whole story when it comes to how Baker Mayfield performed in Sunday’s loss to the Chargers.
Judging by only the box score and final stat line it would appear that Baker Mayfield had a great game against the Los Angeles Chargers. In the loss Mayfield completed 23 of 32 pass attempts for 305 yards and two touchdowns while being sacked just once. The last part being quite impressive considering the Browns were without Jedrick Wills and Chris Hubbard going into the game and losing Jack Conklin along the way. Credit where credit is due, Mayfield avoided being sacked, did not turn the ball over, and managed the game well for the most part. However, taking a look beyond the basic box score paints a much different picture for how Mayfield performed in the loss.
While Baker Mayfield cracked the 300-yard barrier for the second time this season, it is how he got to that number that matters. Air yards only accounted for 114 of his passing total while 191 came after the catch, a good portion coming on what ended up being a 71-yard touchdown to David Njoku. Mayfield accumulating more yards after the catch than air yards is not new as he has 567 air yards compared to 673 yards after the catch this season. While Mayfield’s 9.5 intended air yards per completion is a career-high, the 5.8 completed air yards is a career-low by half a yard and the 6.9 yards after the catch per completion is a career high by 1.2 yards.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Baker Mayfield had the fifth-lowest air yards per completion on Sunday with 4.4. Meanwhile Mayfield’s 8.7 intended air yards per attempt ranked 17th in the NFL, but is closer to the lowest number (6.1) than the highest (12.4). With a -4.2 average air yard differential in Week 5, only four players had worse negative differentials in this department.
It is important to note that these are not new developments for Baker Mayfield. At 5.4 average completed air yards, he checks in as the ninth-lowest in the league. Mayfield’s average intended air yards number of 9 ranks 13th in the NFL while his -3.6 average air yard differential is the second-worst in the league ahead of only Trey Lance.
A large reason why these numbers are so low is that Baker Mayfield is taking long time to throw the ball, ultimately determining to throw a shorter or check down pass. Mayfield averaged 2.99 seconds to throw the ball on Sunday, the eighth most time in the league. For the season that number is 2.88, the 11th longest in the NFL among quarterbacks with 38 or more pass attempts. A contributing factor is Mayfield is not being pressured on a large percentage of his drop backs, with a pressure rate of 18.1%, the lowest rate of his career. Opposing defenses are more content with dropping into coverage and forcing Mayfield to read the defense post snap and hoping he throws short. Judging by his YAC/AY ratio this has been the case more often than not.
So what does this all mean exactly? Well, let’s go back to the final drive in the loss Sunday. It took the Browns 50 seconds to move the ball 12 yards thanks to multiple short check down throws from Baker Mayfield. While Kevin Stefanski has decided to fall on his sword and take the blame for this sequence, the fact of the matter is that more often than not Mayfield is simply not attempting throws down the field on a consistent basis. The quarterback that would get the ball out quickly, not afraid of taking chances, pushing the ball down the field and feeling dangerous is not the quarterback currently taking snaps for the Browns.
Perhaps at some point Mayfield reacquaints himself with that playing style, showing that he is a franchise quarterback and not just the quarterback for a franchise. If not, the team will have to be content with this game manager style of passing that is good enough to be a playoff team, but is more than likely not prolific enough to reach their ultimate goal.
