The Cleveland Browns quarterback has not taken that next step that many anticipated this season.
The Cleveland Browns are 3-1 on the season and that is fantastic. Usually when a team had won three of their first four games the quarterback is usually the reason why. In this specific situation that does not apply for Baker Mayfield.
Baker Mayfield came out firing against Kansas City in Week 1 and each week his play has dipped. While some very basic numbers suggested he was better, (completion percentage), actually watching his on field play showed the opposite. Off target throws combined with overall bad decision making has left a lot to be desired from the quarterback position in Cleveland. Through four games Mayfield has a bad throw percentage of 25%, the worst of his career by 6.2%.
Even in Sunday’s win over the Vikings, Baker Mayfield struggled. Mayfield had a -13.5 competition percentage over expected along with an average completion of just 4.7 yards. This was by far the worst performance of the season for Mayfield and was comparable to early last season when the Browns were still figuring out their current offensive scheme.
When watching Baker Mayfield play there are some alarming habits that have resurfaced. Mayfield is abandoning the pocket and bailing to his right on a regular basis, two trends that were ever present during the disastrous 2019 campaign. If Mayfield is going to improve and turn his season around these patterns need to disappear immediately.
Pressure? What pressure?
The trends that are concerning with Baker Mayfield are not limited to his resurrection of his bad habits from 2019. Mayfield has been sacked 12 times already this season, nearly half his total from all of last season (26) If this trend continues it would easily be a career-high number (40 in 2019). Additionally, when it comes to pressure per drop back, that number is at 18.4%, 0.4% lower than last season. In regards to the offensive line, they have done their job so this all falls back on Baker.
The #Browns currently lead the NFL in both pass rush win rate (59.0%) AND pass block win rate (71.9%)
— Jake Trotter (@Jake_Trotter) October 4, 2021
Opposing teams are not using the blitz to get to Mayfield when he drops back as they have only blitzed 19 times this season. Defenses are forcing Mayfield to read the defense post snap and with one of the lowest time to throw rates after the snap, it is proving problematic. Mayfield has been sacked on 9.6% of his drop backs this season, the fifth-highest rate in the league. The only quarterbacks sacked more frequently are Justin Fields, Davis Mills, Zach Wilson, and Ryan Tannehill, not exactly great company to be in.
Air Yards, YAC, and missed throws
While Mayfield is not throwing interceptions, he really is not taking a whole lot of chances that would result in an interception. Mayfield is only completing an average of 5.7 air yards per completion per NFL Next Gen Stats, right in the middle in terms of other quarterbacks. As far as yards after the catch is concerned, currently Mayfield is benefiting from having more YAC than air yards (482-453). For reference, Mayfield has had more air yards than YAC in each of his first three seasons with the only season coming remotely close being 2019 (2007 A/Y – 1820 YAC).
There’s nothing wrong with a quarterback taking advantage of skill players getting YAC, the difference between Mayfield and other quarterbacks is that they usually complete throws down the field and are not relying on short passes to do so. The dink and dunk offense is simply not sustainable and that is where the Browns are at currently.
Baker was 0-7 today on passes of 20+ air yards pic.twitter.com/Oof8tmJ2gy
— Anthony Reinhard (@reinhardNFL) October 3, 2021
There were quite a few times that Mayfield missed a wide open Beckham throughout the contest and that would have improved both his air yards and yards after the catch.
Pain pic.twitter.com/sVNiy75Tcb
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 4, 2021
These throws are simply unacceptable and must be corrected. Sure, Mayfield described his performance as “piss poor”, but taking the blame for his performance is the bare minimum, he needs to improve plain and simple. The reality is that his best play of the game cannot be when he tied Wyatt Teller’s shoe.
Baker Mayfield tied his offensive lineman's shoe 👞pic.twitter.com/FY8TtdBLIi
— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) October 3, 2021
Looking ahead
There are a ton of high expectations for not only Baker Mayfield, but the Cleveland Browns as a whole. The fact of the matter is that Mayfield is not playing well at all and his performance will ultimately limit just how far the team can go. While the Browns are 3-1 they are winning with Baker Mayfield and not because of him, there is a huge difference. Mayfield’s 39.7 QBR (26th in the NFL) this season is a pretty good indicator this fact.
After posting a 15.6 QBR on Sunday, Baker Mayfield now ranks 26th in QBR with a rating of 39.7. Mayfield finished top 10 in QBR last season. #Browns
— Jake Trotter (@Jake_Trotter) October 4, 2021
Cleveland is winning with a combination of excellent play calling from Kevin Stefanski, the two headed monster in the backfield, and a defense that is playing well right now, but ultimately is due for regression. That is where the team needs Mayfield to step up as having to play perfect is not sustainable and an unreasonable expectation.
There’s a reason why the team hasn’t extended Baker Mayfield yet and it is the consistent inconsistency in his play. Until Mayfield can improve his on field performance any and all discussions involving this subject should be off the table. Perhaps Baker can channel some of his better quarterback performances from the past and play like the second halves of 2018 and 2020. If that happens the Browns have nearly unlimited potential and can possibly realize their lofty expectations. If he is unable to and these current trends continue, like it or not there are going to be a lot of conversations about the future of the quarterback position in Cleveland.
