Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA standings projections for the upcoming season and the Cleveland Indians project to win their division in 2019.
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections were released earlier this week. As expected the Cleveland Indians project to win the American League Central in 2019. For those unfamiliar with PECOTA, it stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. Since it is a bit wordy the use of the acronym PECOTA is understandable.
According to this projection, the Indians will go 97-65 and win the division by 16 games. This is the second best record that PECOTA projects. The only team with a better record is the Houston Astros at 98-64. This includes the Tribe beating out both the Red Sox and Yankees record-wise. Which for most, if not all is surprising.
Indians project to have a good offense?
One of the more interesting aspects of this projection is that it projects the Indians to have the fourth-highest scoring offense in all of baseball. Considering the scrutiny the team has received over their roster management, this comes as a bit of a surprise. Cleveland’s roster overhaul has not gone over well with fans and analysts alike. Letting Michael Brantley walk in free agency was met with frustration. Trading Yandy Diaz and Edwin Encarnacion for Jake Bauers and Carlos Santana did not go over well either. Even with the tough decisions in regards to roster management, PECOTA still projects the offense to perform well.
Indians pitching to be dominant yet again
PECOTA projects the Indians pitching staff to allow the fewest runs in all of baseball. When looking at the starting rotation it is easy to imagine this being the case. However the work in progress bullpen may make that a bit more difficult. The departures of Andrew Miller and Cody Allen leave obvious vacancies in the bullpen. Vacancies which have been currently filled by fliers that Cleveland is taking chances on. Names like Alex Wilson, Nick Wittgren and Oliver Perez. The Indians are hoping to catch lighting in a bottle with players like these and it appears that the PECOTA projections believe that will be the case.
PECOTA projections are just projections not guarantees
While there is criticism with this projection system, it is important to remember it is just a projection. Sometimes they are wrong. The most likely projection to be incorrect is the Chicago Cubs finishing last in the National League Central. When keeping that in consideration, it is perfectly fine to be skeptical with anything PECOTA projects.
While it is possible that Cleveland puts together another good season, counting on a prolific offense may be a bit of a stretch. The Indians are a good team and a near lock to win the division. As the season progresses it will be interesting to see how accurate these projections turn out to be. As of now they provide a bit of hope to those who are unsure about the Indians offense and pitching staff. Whether it turns out to be true will be a different story.
