Trevor Bauer – Indians Enigma

Trevor Bauer was on pace for what many believed, a Cy Young Award winning season in 2018. His fluke injury on August 11th derailed, what might have been. In 27 starts, Bauer went 12-6 with a 2.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, logged 175.1 IP, 220 K, and allowed only 9 HR. All career best numbers. Want more impressive stats? How about, once he started on July 4th, he never lost again. Bauer went 6-0 in July and August and kept opposing hitters to a .171 AVG in that stretch. There’s no doubt that Bauer would’ve logged 200 + innings for the first time in his career had that injury not occurred.

Trevor Bauer was certainly in the conversation for the AL Cy Young

Bauer was a man on fire. Everything was going perfect for him. Who knows how many more strikeouts he would’ve had or how low his ERA could’ve gone. 2014 – 2017 stats shows Bauer owns a 45-37 record, averaged 174 IP per season, 4.30 ERA, and averaged 21 HR allowed per season. Then, 2018 happened. Then…the injury. That leaves us wondering, what will Trevor Bauer do in 2019? A famous saying in finance is “past performance is no guarantee of future results”. Does that hold true for Bauer? Can he possibly improve on his 2018 campaign? To determine this you need to analyze what he’s done on the mound in the past and then, view his prospective future.

One of the secrets to Trevor’s success is his arsenal of pitches. He has eight different pitches that he uses regularly and commands. A Four Seam Fastball, Curveball, Slider, Cutter, Changeup, Sinker, Splitter, and Screwball.

FanGraphs breaks down his 2014-17 seasons using the following pitches and percentage thrown:

Four Seam Fastball – 44%                                                                                                               

Curveball – 22%                                                                                                                             

Slider – 11%                                                                                                                                   

Cutter – 10%                                                                                                                               

Changeup – 10%                                                                                                                           

Sinker – 2%                                                                                                                                   

Splitter – 1%                                                                                                                           

Screwball – 1%

2018

FanGraphs stats show:

Curveball – 27%                                                                                                                           

Four Seam Fastball – 37%                                                                                                 

Slider – 14%                                                                                                                                   

Cutter – 10%

Changeup – 7%                                                                                                                     

Sinker – 5%

Trevor Bauer figured out what pitches work and in what sequence

What this all breaks down to is, Trevor Bauer has evolved and learned to mix his pitches. Last season he relied less on his fastball, more on his off speed and deception pitches. It also shows he abandoned his Splitter and Screwball pitches in 2018. His Fastball averaged 95 MPH last season while his curve averaged 78. A 17 MPH difference between pitches can fool even the most disciplined hitters. Especially when it’s the deceptive 12-6 Curveball he throws. It’s his signature pitch. A filthy pitch that has extreme vertical movement. Meaning he can release the ball over the top of strikezone of batters and drop it into the lower corners of the zone, buckling the hitters knees.

As stated, Trevor Bauer changed his offering of pitches in 2018. He had to. Opposing batters and coaches have charts on pitchers now. They know their patterns and what they throw and when. The batters are evolving as well. Trevor Bauer knows this. He is an extremely intelligent man who embraces and understands the science behind pitching.

Knowledge of baseball and engineering has propelled Trevor Bauer to a new level

Not only did he have a stellar collegiate baseball career at UCLA, he also earned a Degree in Mechanical Engineering. The man is constantly studying film and uses the most up to date cameras and technology to analyze his pitching. He works with a team of trainers, coaches, technicians, and IT people to break down the velocity and spin rate (frame by frame) of every pitch and move he makes in training sessions. Bauer knows that to improve on last seasons success he always needs to be one, if not two, steps ahead of the equally intelligent, evolving batters. 

Spring Training and the 2019 season is upon us. Most analysts, baseball websites, and publications all agree, Trevor Bauer is one of the top pitchers in MLB.

Trevor Bauer’s projected stats for 2019

16 W – 8 L                                                                                                                                           

180 IP                                                                                                                                                 

3.30 ERA                                                                                                                                             

1.20 WHIP                                                                                                                                         

215 K

These numbers show his W-L record and IP in line with past seasons. It shows an ERA in between that of his 2014-17 and 2018 seasons.  A WHIP that is lower, and strikeouts at a higher rate. Close to, but not exactly Cy Young Award stats, but nonetheless, an excellent season if this all holds true.

Projections are just that, pure speculation based on past data. Trevor Bauer believes and knows that you don’t pitch or play on speculation. Leave it to him to figure out a way to perform better than his past season. He’s done it every year in his career since joining the Indians rotation full time in 2015.   This all begs the questions of 2019 and beyond. Is this the start of a dominant run by Trevor Bauer? Was 2018 an anomaly? Will we see him pitch close to the projections of 2019? With Trevor Bauer’s past performance and attention to detail, one can only imagine what will transpire.